The Reports prepared jointly by TÜSİAD and UN Population Fund were launched in Ankara

TÜSİAD and the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) launched their reports prepared in the context of the “Demography and Management towards 2050” project, in Ankara with a meeting. During the meeting the repercussions of the future demographic structure of Turkey toward 2050 on labor, health and pension/social security systems were discussed.

TÜSİAD and the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) are cooperating for a project titled “Demography and Management towards 2050” in order to discuss demographic transformations in Turkey and the impact of these transformation particularly on the sphere of social policies. Three reports discussing the impact of the demographic trends on labor, health and social security (pension) systems were launched on November 27th, 2012, in Ankara.

The opening speeches of the meeting launching the reports were made by Ms. Ümit Boyner, President of the Board of Directors of TÜSİAD and Dr. Zahidul A. Huque, Turkey Representative of United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA).

Ms. Boyner: “demographic indicators should be on the top of our agenda.”

Ms Ümit Boyner emphasized in her speech, the importance of acknowledging the direction pointed by the demography and she put forward the question: “Will Turkey be able to exploit the opportunities provided by demographic transformations and to achieve the status of a fully developed country in the 21st century, or not?” Ms. Boyner said: “We believe that our country has the potential of exploiting the demographic window of opportunity, and by 2050 Turkey can attain a high level of economic, demographic and social development. However, to achieve that, demographic indicators should be on the top of the agenda of the political parties, universities and civil society institutions. In planning for the future we should determine what are the quality polices in education, employment, health and social security with the same care as the quantitative realities. In order to substantiate and to realize the targets we establish for our country, we have to pay due attention to the demographic data. The most important fact we should never forget is this: A country which do not invest in human resources cannot be a developed country among the major league player of the world, regardless of its growth.”

Ms. Boyner also emphasized in her speech that all the policies should pay significant consideration to the women’s employment which is still extremely low.

Dr. Huque: “Policy makers should use these data to turn the population transformation in Turkey into an advantage.”

Dr. Zahidul A. Huque indicated in his speech that world population has reached to 7 billion in 2011, and a world of 7 billion people is both an opportunity and a challenge. Dr. Huque stated that this fact has many repercussions on the health, education, labor force, social security, urbanization, environment, and sustainability issues and he said: “The global world and population transformations, transforms also individuals, communities, societies and the world itself. The welfare of the generations of today and of the future requires that due attention should be paid to the population dynamics. While the world deals with the problems such as poverty, discrimination, and violence, it also tries to make the great human resources and capacity active. Particularly the resources and capacity of women and youth.”

Mr. Huque remarked that Turkey is now in the middle of a unique historical demographic transformation and he stated that the Turkish population in the 2050 is calculated to reach 100 million. Mr. Huque reminded that the changing demographic structure creates both opportunities and challenges for us and he stated. “to observe and to define the changing population trends is of great importance in deciding on the future policies, the policies of development, education, labor force, health, environment, population, urbanization, and social security. How to adapt the existing structures and services to the changing demographic structure and how to turn this transformation into an advantage for the country, is an issue for deliberation and calculation.

The reports in the context of the “Demography and Management towards 2050” launched

Following the opening speeches, the reports discussing repercussions of the demographic structure of Turkey toward 2050 on labor, health and pension/social security systems were launched. Following points were underlined in the presentation made by the authors of the reports:

The report “Demography and Management towards 2050: A review of Labor Market” presents labor force participation, employment and unemployment forecasts for the 2010-2050 period. The report considers three scenarios for high, average and low performance. The scenarios include criteria such as economic growth rate (3% for the low performance scenario, 5% for the average performance scenario, 7% for the high performance scenario), schooling rates including preschool education, minimum age of retirement, accessibility of childcare, elasticity coefficient as an indicator of the employment creating capacity of the growth. Accordingly 2023-2050 forecasts are as follows:

·    Total labor force participation rate is forecasted 50.9%, 53.6% and 55.4% for the low, average and high performance scenarios respectively, for the year of 2023. For the year of 2050, the total labor force participation rate is forecasted 54.1%, 62.5% and 68.1% for the low, average and high performance scenarios respectively.
·    Total employment rate is forecasted 44.8%, 47.8% and 49.9% for the low, average and high performance scenarios respectively, for the year of 2023. For the year of 2050, the total employment rate is forecasted 47.6%, 57.2% and 63.5% for the low, average and high performance scenarios respectively. According to the scenarios, the elasticity coefficient indicating of the employment creating capacity of the growth is in the interval of 40 to 50% in the period of 2010-2050.
·    Unemployment rate is forecasted 12.1%, 10.8% and 10% for the low, average and high performance scenarios respectively, for the year of 2023. For the year of 2050, the unemployment rate is forecasted 12%, 8.5% and 6.7% for the low, average and high performance scenarios respectively.

The report indicates that the most probable scenario among the three alternatives is the second one. The report also draws attention to the labor force participation of women and youth makes policy suggestions. According to these policy suggestions, mechanisms for the childcare and care for the elderly and preschool education should be extended; education policies should be designed in a way to enhance the quality and employability of the labor force; and macroeconomic stability, strong economic growth and increase in investment should be ensured in order to increase the labor demand.

The report “Demography and Management towards 2050: A review of Social Security (Pensions) System” discusses the impact of the aging population on the financial equilibrium of the social security. While the gradual increase of retirement age is to improve active/passive insured ratio, the aging population will reverse this trend by 2020 and there is a risk of growing deficits in the social security system. However, to raise the social security contribution rates which are already too high, to reduce the level of monthly pensions or to increase the retirement age which is raised in 2008 and will reach 65 by 2036, are no more realistic options. This leaves focusing to increase contribution revenues instead of efforts to reduce expenditures, as the policy suggestion of the report. The report emphasizes the need of increasing labor force participation and fighting the unregistered economy. It also underlines that women’s participation to labor force should be a priority target for the same reason.

The report “Demography and Management towards 2050: A review of Health System” indicates that the countries where 15% of the population is old are defined as having an “aging population”. Turkey will have an aging population only by 2040, and by 2050 17% of the population will be over the age of 65. The problems related to the aging population will be new, unfamiliar problems for Turkey, and new methods to tackle these problems will be necessary. However, as the total number of women, mothers and children, and adolescents will continue to increase, even though their share in the population somewhat decreases, the importance of these groups for the health policies will remain as great as ever. Quality human resources in the healthcare, health infrastructure, programs for health services and the health budget should be planned with due consideration of demographic data. Health services should move away from being focused on sickness and disease to focus on health enhancement and prevention. Disease management processes should exploit data and information systems particularly for the chronic diseases and the performance of the health system should be improved. Efficiency in the health services should be boosted and measures should be taken to ensure cost efficiency in the health services provided by the public and private sector.

The meeting discussed the demographic structure of Turkey toward 2050 and the impact of the demographic transformation on labor, health and social security (pension) systems. Various policy suggestions in the spheres of labor, health and social security (pension) were evaluated under the light of a number of scenarios according to the population dynamics.

Within the framework of its 5th Country Program (2011-2015), the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) supports the collection of comprehensive demographic data and information and the use of these data and information in the design and implementation of social and economic policies. TÜSİAD confirmed its interest on the dynamics of the demographic structure with its 1999 report on the subject. TÜSİAD and the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) launched their collaborative project “Demography and Management towards 2050” in 2009.

Within the framework of this project, a main report about the projections for the year of 2050 and four sectoral books on the repercussions of the demographic transformation on the spheres of education, labor force, health, and social security were planned. The “Main Report” of the “Demography and Management towards 2050” project containing 2050 projections and the “Education Report” about the impact of the demographic transformation on the educational system were already launched with a meeting on November 5th, 2010, in Istanbul.

REPORTS

“Demography and Management towards 2050: A review of Labor Market”

“Demography and Management towards 2050: A review of Social Security (Pensions) System”

“Demography and Management towards 2050: A review of Health System”